Let’s take a closer look at the CL knockout play-offs!
CL Knockout Play-offs Preview
In 1992, the European Cup was rebranded to its current name, and an initial group stage was introduced two years later, replacing the old format of straight knockouts from round one. In a short space of time, the biggest club competition in the world was transformed.
Another major revamp took place ahead of the current campaign. The tournament expanded to include 36 teams instead of 32, and the group stage was replaced by a league phase. Each team played eight games rather than six, with every single side ranked in the same league table.
Those eight rounds of fixtures are now complete. The top eight teams have already gone through to the round of 16, while those who finished between ninth and 24th will have to contest a play-off.
Has the new format been a success? That depends on who you ask. The old group stage had grown stale and it was probably right to find a way to freshen things up. There were some memorable matches in the league phase, including Paris Saint-Germain 4-2 Manchester City and Benfica 4-5 Barcelona, and some stunning upsets, notably Lille 1-0 Real Madrid and Feyenoord 3-0 Bayern Munich.
However, matchday eight (in which 18 games took place simultaneously) was a little underwhelming. Most of the major issues had been decided by half-time. The powers that be would have hoped for more drama and intrigue. On top of that, there were no major casualties among the 12 teams that were eliminated, with the possible exception of RB Leipzig.
It is now time to look ahead to the knockout phase, beginning with the play-offs in February and continuing with the round of 16 in March.
Play-off Previews
The two-legged play-offs will be held on February 11-12 and February 18-19. This is what you should expect from the eight ties taking place.
Brest vs Paris Saint-Germain
Brest punched above their weight by finishing 18th in the league phase. After all, this is a club which is not among the elite in France and is currently staging its CL games in Guingamp because its own stadium is on the small side.
Paris Saint-Germain suffered a few scares along the way, but in the end they secured a 15th-place finish despite being handed a difficult draw. Their 4-2 victory over Manchester City was particularly impressive.
Brest will be somewhat disappointed with this draw given they regularly play PSG domestically. It is hard to look past Luis Enrique’s side in this one.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to go through.
Club Brugge vs Atalanta
Atalanta were in contention for a top eight finish, but in the end they missed out by a point. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side won the EL last term and the experience they gained from that will stand them in good stead in the knockout phase.
Club Brugge scraped through on goal difference, thanks largely to the fact Dinamo Zagreb lost 9-2 to Bayern Munich on matchday one. They are one of the weakest teams left in the tournament.
You can never take anything for granted in football, but it would be a surprise if Atalanta fell in the play-offs. Gasperini’s men should make it through without too many problems.
Prediction: Atalanta to go through.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
The standout fixture of the round pits the two most recent winners of the CL against one another. Manchester City and Real Madrid have contested some epic head-to-head clashes in recent years, and we could be set for another one in the play-offs.
City underwhelmed in the league phase and only secured their progression on the final day. Madrid also suffered their fair share of disappointing results on their way to an 11th-place finish.
Neither team has been completely convincing up to now, but the ease with which City give up chances to their opponents will probably cost them against Kylian Mbappe and co.
Prediction: Real Madrid to go through.
Juventus vs PSV
Juventus are in transition under Thiago Motta, who led his team to a 20th-place finish in the league phase. There were just 16 goals in their eight matches, which demonstrates why many Italian football fans are not fond of watching Juve at the moment.
PSV are anything but dull. They score goals for fun in the Eredivisie under their attack-minded manager Peter Bosz, although their results have been more mixed in the CL.
Juventus are a bigger club than PSV, but that will not be a factor in this tie. The Dutch team can spring a minor surprise by eliminating their storied opponents.
Prediction: PSV to go through.
Feyenoord vs AC Milan
Feyenoord had some eye-catching results in the league phase, drawing 3-3 with Manchester City, beating Bayern Munich 3-0, and losing 6-1 to Lille. For better or worse they are an open side: their eight matches averaged almost five goals per 90 minutes.
It is hard to know what to expect from AC Milan, who beat Real Madrid away from home but lost 2-1 to Dinamo Zagreb. The Italian giants changed their manager at the end of 2024, replacing Paulo Fonseca with Sergio Conceicao.
Prediction: AC Milan to go through.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich lost three matches in the league phase, going down to Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord. They might be going strong domestically, but the jury remains out on Vincent Kompany’s side at the highest level.
Celtic are through to the knockout phase of the CL for the first time since 2012/13. Brendan Rodgers’ team relied on their home form, with all three of their wins coming at Parkhead.
Celtic are by far the strongest side in Scotland, but they will struggle to stick with Bayern Munich across two legs. The German club will almost certainly be in the round of 16.
Prediction: Bayern Munich to go through.
Sporting CP vs Borussia Dortmund
Sporting CP took 10 points from the first 12 available in the league phase, but they struggled to maintain that sort of form after Ruben Amorim departed for Manchester United. Three defeats and a draw followed, but Sporting scraped through in 23rd spot.
Borussia Dortmund were also something of a mixed bag under Nuri Sahin, who was subsequently replaced by Niko Kovac. We will have to wait and see what that means for BVB going forward.
Kovac is an accomplished coach, and Dortmund reached the final of the CL last year, so they deserve to be favourites in this play-off.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to go through.
Monaco vs Benfica
Monaco kicked off their continental campaign by beating Barcelona, but they won just one of their final four games. Even so, the club from the principality realised their objective of advancing to the knockout phase.
Benfica did likewise, sealing their place in the next round courtesy of an impressive 2-0 away win against Juventus on matchday eight. They also thrashed Atlético Madrid 4-0 earlier in the tournament.
This is arguably the toughest play-off to call given Benfica finished 16th and Monaco finished 17th. The Portuguese side did beat their Ligue 1 opponents 3-2 in the league phase, though, and they could edge this two-legged tie as well.
Prediction: Benfica to go through.
Round of 16 Teams
Eight teams will bypass the play-offs and advance directly to the round of 16. In this section we run the rule over the best-performing sides in the league phase.
Liverpool
Liverpool breezed through the league phase, winning their first seven games to qualify at a canter. Arne Slot’s side then fell to defeat by PSV on matchday eight, but that result had no significance given their previous triumphs.
Liverpool are flying high in the league, where they are strong favourites to win the title. A potential last-16 clash with Paris Saint-Germain would be an obstacle, but Liverpool are the team to beat in the CL right now.
Will play: Brest, Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco or Benfica.
Barcelona
Barcelona have not had much to cheer about in this tournament in recent years, but they were largely fantastic in the league phase of the 2024/25 edition. Barcelona amassed 19 points from a possible 24 and scored a total of 28 goals, giving them the best attacking record in the tournament by far.
On the flip side, Hansi Flick’s charges conceded more goals than any other team in the top 16. They will have to tighten up in the knockout rounds, particularly if they end up facing Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16.
Will play: Brest, Paris Saint-Germain, Monaco or Benfica.
Arsenal
Arsenal have never won this tournament, a wrong they are determined to right this season. With Liverpool in pole position to win the league title, the Gunners may opt to put all their eggs in the European basket by the time the round of 16 rolls around.
Arsenal are defensively solid and they pack a punch in attack too, especially when Bukayo Saka is fit. A lack of experience in the latter stages of the CL could be a factor, but Arsenal are a tough proposition these days.
Will play: Juventus, PSV, Feyenoord or AC Milan.
Inter
Inter did not give much away in the league phase, conceding just one goal in 720 minutes of football. That is testament to Simone Inzaghi and his players, who are currently balancing the CL with the Serie A title race, in which Inter are favourites to prevail.
Inter reached the final in 2023 and gave a good account of themselves, losing narrowly to Manchester City. They finished fourth in the league phase and should not be underestimated. A potential last-16 clash with domestic rivals Juventus or AC Milan would be massive.
Will play: Juventus, PSV, Feyenoord or AC Milan.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid lost to Benfica and Lille on matchdays two and three of the league phase, leaving them in a difficult position. But Diego Simeone’s side subsequently turned things around, winning five games in a row to surge up to fifth place in the standings.
Atlético have reached the CL final twice under Simeone, but the draw has not been kind this time around. In all likelihood, the Colchoneros will face one of Manchester City, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in the last 16.
Will play: Manchester City, Real Madrid, Celtic or Bayern Munich.
Bayer Leverkusen
The reigning Bundesliga champions, Bayer Leverkusen are now determined to make their mark on Europe’s foremost competition. They finished sixth in the league phase after winning five and drawing one of their eight encounters under Xabi Alonso.
Like Atlético Madrid, Leverkusen will have to do things the hard way in the round of 16, with Real Madrid, Manchester City or Bayern Munich set to be their opponents. Still, it would be a mistake to write the German outfit off.
Will play: Manchester City, Real Madrid, Celtic or Bayern Munich.
Lille
It is fair to say no one envisaged Lille finishing seventh in the league phase. The French team did a magnificent job to pick up 16 points, with victories over Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid the undoubted high points.
Lille also drew with Juventus and thrashed Feyenoord 6-1, while they only lost 2-1 to Liverpool at Anfield. Yet for all their achievements up to now, Bruno Genesio’s side remain outsiders to win the competition.
Will play: Club Brugge, Atalanta, Sporting CP or Borussia Dortmund.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa won the European Cup in 1982, but this season is their first in the modern CL. The English side have been determined to make up for lost time, amassing 16 points in the league phase to secure a top eight finish.
Unai Emery’s team have been inconsistent domestically in 2024/25, but their manager has a fabulous track record in knockout football on the continent. Villa are potentially awkward opponents for anyone.
Will play: Club Brugge, Atalanta, Sporting CP or Borussia Dortmund.
PS: The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this article.
Last Updated: 04.02.2025
