Who will win the Derby della Madonnina? Read our preview!
Derby della Madonnina Preview – Inter or AC Milan?
The new Serie A season is here, and many fans expect the Scudetto title to end up in Milan again come the end of the 2024/25 campaign. But will it be Internazionale or AC Milan lifting the trophy?
Inter left their rivals in the dust last season, almost breaking the 100-point barrier and finishing a full 19 points ahead of their rivals AC Milan. The likes of Juventus and Atalanta were even further behind, 23 and 25 points short of Inter respectively. All four of those teams will be hoping to close the gap on the defending champions this time around.
Internazionale vs AC Milan
The first big derby match of the Serie A season falls on September 22 when Internazionale host AC Milan – even though they actually share the same home stadium, the San Siro. The Serie A title race has been one of the most exciting in Europe in the last five years, with four different teams having lifted the trophy. Inter won the Scudetto in 2020/21 and 2023/24, while AC Milan last lifted it in 2021/22. Juventus and Napoli have both also won the Italian league in recent seasons. However, this year is a little different, with Milan having to close a huge 19-point gap if they want to overtake Inter in the standings. Last season, Inter managed 29 wins out of 38 games, losing just two matches all season, while AC Milan only recorded 22 victories and lost seven games. So, which one of them will finish higher this season in the battle of Milan?
The Derby della Madonnina Rivalry
Where exactly does the Inter and AC Milan rivalry come from? A lot of younger fans may not even know the roots of the bitter conflict. In fact, even the oldest person alive is only just old enough to have lived through the formation of Internazionale. The Derby della Madonnina is the most famous and heated derby in Italy, and with good reason…
Back in 1908, a group of players decided to break away from AC Milan to form their own team. They wanted to play for a club that was more accepting of foreign players, something they felt was not welcome at The Milan Cricket and Football Club at the time. That’s actually where the name Football Club Internazionale comes from – a desire to welcome international players into the club with open arms. And so, Internazionale was born!
Even since Internazionale’s rise up the ranks of Italian football back in the early 1900s, the rivalry between them and AC Milan has been fierce, to say the least. If you go to the San Siro on derby day, you are almost certain to be met with a hostile atmosphere, including plenty of banners and an ocean of flares. In fact, the San Siro is one of the biggest selling points of the Derby della Madonnina in general. Can you imagine Barcelona and Real Madrid sharing the same stadium every year? Or Manchester United and Liverpool? Or Arsenal and Tottenham?
The Venue
San Siro – Sunday 22 September. Kick-off: 20:45 local time.
Inter haven’t always played their home matches at this stadium. The San Siro was built back in 1926 and funded by then-AC Milan chairman, Piero Pirelli. Just nine years later, the stadium was sold to the city and Inter were welcomed as a joint tenant in 1947, much to the annoyance of Milan fans. The 76,000-seat stadium is even named after Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, a club legend who played for Inter across 14 seasons, and only two years with Milan.
Form Guide
Inter and AC Milan have something in common this week – they both have to play a big English team in the CL just days before the Milan derby. Inter have the short straw because they have to travel to the Etihad to face Manchester City, while AC Milan played at home to Liverpool, a match that ended in a 1-3 loss. However, fitness and fatigue are likely going to come into play on Sunday, especially in the second half at the San Siro.
Internazionale
Inter Milano have started the 2024/25 Serie A season in mixed form, picking up two draws and two victories – but at least they remain unbeaten. Last week, Denzel Dumfries scored a late equaliser to earn Inter a point away to Monza. The reigning champions currently sit in second in the table, just one point behind Napoli and level with Juventus. All things considered, it has been a pretty good start to their title defence.
AC Milan
Unlike their bitter rivals, AC Milan have already tasted defeat this season in a 2-1 away loss to Parma. Apart from that, Milan have two draws and a win under their belt. The silver lining is that the win came just last week, so they will be hoping it signals the start of a productive run in the Serie A. AC Milan are currently down in 9th in the table on five points, but are still only four behind the league leaders and there is a long way to go in the season yet.
Team News and Injury News
Internazionale made a number of shrewd signings over the summer to strengthen the depth of their already impressive squad. The most notable of those has to go down as Davide Frattesi, who joined from Sassuolo on a deal worth €29 million. It is worth noting that the only two Serie A matches Inter lost last season were home and away against Sassuolo. Inter also reinforced their forward line with the signing of 35-year-old Marko Arnautovic and the free transfer of 31-year-old Mehdi Taremi – although both did pick up knocks in pre-season. Piotr Zielinski also joined on a free transfer from Napoli, while Goalkeeper Josep Martinez and left-midfielder Carlos Augusto were both purchased for around €13 million each.
Fortunately for Inter, they come into the Milan derby with an extremely small injury list. Tajon Buchanan broke his tibia in July and even he is expected back in early October. Apart from that, Inter Milano have a full complement of players to choose from.
AC Milan were pretty quiet in the summer transfer window, but the signing of Alvaro Morata from Atlético Madrid is not insignificant – fresh off the back of captaining Spain to an international title. Strahinja Pavlovic was also picked up from RB Salzburg for €18 million, while left-back Alex Jimenez cost just €5 million from Real Madrid’s U19 team. Emerson Royal joined from Tottenham Hotspur for €13 million and Youssouf Fofana cost €20 million from Monaco – two new first-team players for AC Milan.
AC Milan will be without a few first-team players for the match against Inter this weekend. Alessandro Florenzi is out for the long term with an anterior cruciate ligament injury and is not expected back until April 2025. Ismael Bennacer is also expected to remain out until the new year with a calf muscle tear. Marco Sportiello and Malick Thiaw are also absent at the moment, but Davide Calabria could return in time for this weekend.
Players to Watch
There are so many incredible players to keep an eye on in this one. Perhaps one of the most interesting battles on the pitch will be Leao against Pavard. If Inter can keep Milan’s star player quiet, they could be in for a fun evening at the San Siro. Martinez and Thuram up against Tomori and Pavlovic could also be an eye-catching head-to-head. Inter often play three at the back and pack the midfield, compared to AC Milan’s 4-3-3 formation. The likes of Pulisic and Leao may have to drop back in a five, or risk allowing Inter to completely dominate the midfield battle.
Head-to-head Record
It comes as no surprise that Inter and Milan have played each other more than a few times over the years. After all, it’s a pretty short commute from the San Siro to the San Siro. Since the first game was played between the two sides at the San Siro back in 1926, there have been over 220 matches played between Inter and Milan. Inter edge the all-time derby standings, with 85 wins to Milan’s 71 (as well as 67 draws).
In the last couple of years, Milan have really struggled against their fierce rivals. Since the beginning of the 2022/23 season, Inter and AC Milan have played each other a whopping seven times in the Serie A, CL, and Supercoppa Italiana. However, Milan have walked away as winners just once from those seven fixtures, with Inter winning the other six.
Last season in the Serie A, Inter managed a 2-1 away win in the Derby della Madonnina while thrashing Milan 5-1 at home. This season, Milan will surely hope to give a better account of themselves, especially seeing as these fixtures could be six-pointers in the race for the Serie A title.
Potential Implications
Inter and AC Milan both harbour ambitions of fighting for the Serie A title this season, so we could very well be looking at an early six-pointer this weekend. Not only will they be looking to earn three points themselves, but they will also be looking to force a direct rival to drop three of their own. The gap between Inter and AC was 19 points last season, so it feels more important for Milan to win this game than Internazionale. However, the home side will want to assert their dominance and send a message out to the rest of the Italian league.
Predicted Line-Ups
Let’s take a look at how we expect Inter and AC Milan to line up for the Derby della Madonnina this weekend.
Internazionale Starting XI
Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.
AC Milan Starting XI
Maignan; Emerson, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.
Internazionale vs AC Milan Odds
Internazionale go into the first derby of the season as favourites due to their home advantage and superior record last season. However, these early-season games really can go either way. Although home crowd advantage is still a thing between Inter and Milan, home stadium advantage does not apply as much, considering they both play at the San Siro every other week. With Internazionale winning this fixture 5-1 last season, it remains to be seen whether AC Milan can give a better account of themselves.
Internazionale to win: 1.68
Draw: 3.95
AC Milan to win: 4.70
Last season, Inter Milano won this fixture 5-1. You can get odds of them doing the same again for 67.00. Internazionale are 9.00 to win 2-0 or 13.00 to win 3-0. If you want to back AC Milan to get the away win, you can get odds of 15.00 for a 1-0 victory and 13.00 for 1-2.
You can check the full range of Inter vs AC Milan odds at Betsson HERE.
Score Prediction
We would be surprised to see any result but an Inter win here. Not only do Internazionale have a much stronger starting XI than AC, but they have also made a better start to the new season. However, it must be said that Inter do have to fly to England to face Manchester City while AC Milan don’t have to travel for their match against Liverpool. That could swing the pendulum slightly back toward the away side.
Prediction: Internazionale 3-1 AC Milan
PS: The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this article.
Last Updated: 18.09.2024
