PL Preview: Lars Sivertsen predicts which teams will be fighting to avoid relegation!
PL Preview: The relegation battle
The most compelling drama in the Premier League is often found at the wrong end of the table.
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Predicting a team to get relegated from the PL always feels slightly mean-spirited. On the surface of things, it can seem like a total dismissal of the club, their players, their fans and all the rest of it. Whereas the reality is that every team in this division has something about them – they wouldn’t be there if they didn’t – but at the end of each season a cluster of them inevitably have to finish 18th, 19th and 20th. Attempting to predict which ones is made all the more difficult by the presence of three newly promoted teams, whose squads tend to contain a lot of players whose credentials at this level are still unknown. Though as very recent history shows us, players that are untested at this level can surprise people. We are, after all, coming off a season where all three newly promoted teams stayed up. There is an enjoyable degree of irrationality to the relegation battle, as the three teams that go down very often are not the three worst teams on paper. More woolly, intangible factors like team cohesion, team spirit and belief all end up mattering quite a lot, not to mention sheer luck. Which is all a very long-winded way of saying that trying to make predictions for this end of the table is difficult, bordering on unpleasant. But I do have a sneaking suspicion Luton might actually stay up.
20th place: Sheffield United
Odds on staying up: 2.20
Odds on going down: 1.60
Odds on finishing last: 4.00
Reasons for optimism:
Sheffield United have a solid core of players who have played and shown that they can play well in this division before. After the former Malmö man Anel Ahmedhodžić proved a success in the Championship, they went back to the Scandinavian market and signed Beni Traore from Häcken and Anis Slimane from Brøndby. There could be more signings.
Reasons for concern:
The departure of last season’s top-scorer Iliman Ndiaye doesn’t seem like a particularly good sign. There’s an overall shortage of obvious goalscorers. Striker Oliver McBurnie wasn’t particularly prolific at this level last time around.
Verdict:
Because of Luton Town’s unique story and Burnley’s stylistic rebirth under Vincent Kompany, Sheffield United almost feels like the forgotten club out of the three who got promoted. It’s possible that this leads us, by which I mean me, to underestimate them. There is certainly a solid, combative core to this team, but I worry about where the goals are coming from. This could change with additional signings, but as things stand I’m not convinced Sheffield United can cause enough trouble for enough opponents in this division to stay up.
19th place: Wolves
Odds on staying up: 1.20
Odds on going down: 4.75
Odds on finishing last: 12.00
Reasons for optimism:
Wolves still have some very good players in their team, players who have shown in the past that they can either play very well in the PL or at another solid European level. A fit Sasa Kalajdzic should be like a new signing up front. A team that has guys like Pablo Sarabia, Daniel Podence and Matheus Cunha playing behind Kalajdzic or Hwang Hee-chan, with Matheus Nunes pulling strings in midfield, probably shouldn’t get relegated.
Reasons for concern:
I think they still might. They’ve finished 10th and 13th in their last two seasons, but in both those seasons the underlying numbers were worrying. Looking at Expected Goals, and specifically their xG goal difference, they were the fourth worst team in the league in both their last two seasons. With two seasons like that, you tend to think that this team should strengthen the squad before they get into real trouble – but instead they’ve been weakened this summer. Ruben Neves, Joao Moutinho, Nathan Collins, Adama Traore and Raul Jimenez have all left. Collins will be missed in defence, and goals could be an issue. Manager Julen Lopetegui appears unsettled.
Final verdict:
You never really know with Wolves. Because of the club’s fruitful relationship with “super agent” Jorge Mendes they can suddenly pull surprising signings out of a hat. But with talk of FFP problems this could be more difficult than usual. As things stand, I suspect Wolves could have a very difficult time this season.
18h place: Bournemouth
Odds on staying up: 1.35
Odds on going down: 3.35
Odds on finishing last: 11.00
Reasons for optimism: New manager Andoni Iraola arrives with an exciting reputation after coaxing impressive results and performances out of Rayo Vallecano. The moves Bournemouth have made in the transfer market since the takeover last year have been interesting, and there seems to be a clear emphasis on building a youthful, energetic and attacking team.
Reasons for concern:
Were dead last in the league on xG last season. Part of that was because they took a handful of real thumpings and they did show an admirable ability to shrug those off and keep working. But still, the fact remains that if you put up the worst xG numbers in the league and you stay up you’ve probably been a little bit lucky, and significant improvement is needed. Iraola is an intriguing appointment, and this is a much more interesting team on paper now than at this time last season. But part of what makes Iraola exciting, his positive, attacking approach to the game, also gives me pause for concern here. After all, taking one of the worst teams in the league last season and turning them into a swashbuckling attacking outfit is a big ask.
Final verdict:
Andoni Iraola once said that as a coach he prefers “too much chaos to too much organisation”. A delightful sentiment, and I for one am very much looking forward to watching this version of Bournemouth. The haggard old cynic in me, however, worries that it might not work very well. I very much hope I’m wrong, though.
17th place: Luton
Odds on staying up: 3.25
Odds on going down: 1.35
Odds on finishing last: 2.50
Reasons for optimism:
Let’s be clear here: Luton are huge underdogs in this division. In terms of budgets they are likely the smallest team ever to get promoted to the Premier League. Their stadium, Kenilworth Road, looks like something that belongs in League 2 (as you will no doubt become very tired of hearing this season). Personally I think it’s a great place to watch football, and I actually think this whole situation can actually be a slight advantage for Luton. This team is going into the season knowing exactly what they are, and more specifically they know what they’re not. They will be committed, combative and play to their strengths. I think this is a team that knows it’s going to lose a fair few games this season, so I don’t think they’ll panic or let heads drop when they do. On paper they should have no chance of staying up, but on paper they shouldn’t have been promoted either. If we look at recent PL history and other teams that were surprisingly promoted on a limited budget, Huddersfield Town and Sheffield United spring to mind. Both of those stayed up the first season.
Reasons for concern:
Well, where do you start? The short version is that on paper this looks like one of the weakest squads we’ve seen in the PL. If we’re judging this by conventional logic there are concerns in all areas of the pitch. PL experience? Little-to-none. It is hard, bordering on impossible, to make a rational case for this not being one of the three weakest teams in the league in theory.
Final verdict:
But the relegation battle isn’t always rational and football is not played in theory. Look no further than the squad and wage bill Leicester City took down with them last season. Luton Town have already defied reason and logic to get to the top division. I actually think they can defy reason and logic again.
16th place: Burnley
Odds on staying up: 1.25
Odds on going down: 3.60
Odds on finishing last: 10.00
Reasons for optimism: What happened with Burnley last season was a minor footballing miracle. Not the same kind as Luton getting promoted, but a footballing miracle all the same. After years of Dyche-ball in the PL they eventually got relegated, taking a team with them into the Championship that was Total Dyche. It was built to do one thing, and for several seasons it had done that thing very well. In comes Vincent Kompany, a Guardiola-inspired but inexperienced boss who wanted to turn everything on its head and play possession-based football. It really, really shouldn’t have worked, but it did. Burnley won the Championship by a mile, racking up 101 points and losing just 3 games in 46. It was wild. And again: Having defied expectations once, Kompany and Burnley might as well do it again.
Reasons for concern:
You do wonder if Burnley could end up having “The Norwich problem”. Twice in recent years Norwich got promoted from the Championship by playing positive, attacking football – but found that in the PL they just weren’t quite a good enough to play that way. Of course, rather than The Norwich problem Burnley might also perform “The Brentford pivot”, with Thomas Frank’s team being quite possession happy in the Championship but after being promoted they altered their approach and became a much more direct team. Time will tell. Also, if we’re being picky, there’s not exactly a ton of proven PL goalscorers in this team.
Final verdict:
You can definitely make a case for this being one of the three weakest squads in the division on paper, and you can have legitimate concerns about how their style of play will transfer to the top division. But having done a profoundly impressive job in getting promoted, I tend to think Vincent Kompany and his team deserves the benefit of the doubt there. I think they can stay up.
15th place: Nottingham Forest
Odds on staying up: 1.25
Odds on going down: 3.75
Odds on finishing last: 12.00
Reasons for optimism: Having survived a very chaotic first season in the Championship, things should be easier for Steve Cooper and his Nottingham Forest team. For all the jokes about Forest’s crazy transfer market splurge last season (and I made a good number of them myself), the truth is also that they had to sign a bunch of players because they came up with a hugely depleted squad. And they had a lot of injuries during the course of the season. Now things should be more settled, less chaotic. I like their attack with Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson dovetailing behind the underrated Taiwo Awoniyi. They have a solid core of capable midfielders, and about 105 fullbacks left over from last season. Steve Cooper seems to know what he’s doing. He’ll probably figure it out.
Reasons for concern:
Frankly, the owner. Evangelis Marinakis is a bit of a wild card, and you wonder what exactly his definition of success this season is. Another season of not getting relegated and consolidating their status as a PL team seems a good target to me, but will Mr Marinakis retain his wits if Forest start poorly or go through a difficult spell? He went through three sporting directors last season, which is unorthodox to say the least, and it seems a minor miracle that Cooper stayed in his job. A hasty sacking could see the season spiral. Also must improve on their truly horrendous away record from last season.
Final verdict:
Having defied predictions and survived in their first season, a less chaotic season where Steve Cooper has better working conditions should see Forest stay up again.
14th place: Everton
Odds on staying up: 1.20
Odds on going down: 4.25
Odds on finishing last: 15.00
Reasons for optimism:
Dyche finds a way. Sean Dyche is not everyone’s cup of tea, but it’s hard to deny that he’s good at the very specific thing that he does. Everton were 19th when he came in last season, but under Dyche they picked up 21 points in 18 games. At that rate, over a 38-game season, they would have taken 44 points, which last season was actually enough to put them 12th in the table. Having gotten to know his players and having had a full preseason to work with them, there are few compelling reasons to believe that Everton should be a lot worse than they were in the second half of last season. Dyche finds a way.
Reasons for concern: The financial concerns have restricted Everton’s efforts in the transfer market. Arnaut Danjuma should be a useful addition, but with Yerry Mina and Conor Coady departing they look a little bit thin at the back. They also still look short on good options up front, and will again have to hope that Dominic Calvert-Lewin can stay fit. In short: Most of the problems that were there last season are still there now.
Final verdict:
Sean Dyche saved Everton from near-certain relegation, and if left alone to do his job he will no doubt keep them up again. But the squad is still a bit thin, and there’s not a huge margin for error in terms of bad luck, injuries and the like. These are still worrying times for Everton as a club, but you trust Dyche to keep them afloat for another season.
13th place: Fulham
Odds on staying up: 1.20
Odds on going down: 5.00
Odds on finishing last: 12.00
Reasons for optimism:
Quite a few reasons, in fact Fulham fans may have good reason to feel a little bit insulted to see their club included in this segment. They did, after all, finish 10th last season. Both manager Marco Silva and talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic are still at the club, in spite of Saudi interest. The same is the case for Willian, who was an unexpected hit for the club last season. Calvin Bassey has been added to defence, and should both be an option at left back and a potential long-term successor to Tim Ream in defence. They were fine, more than fine, last season and nothing particularly drastic has happened over the summer to suggest they shouldn’t still be fine this season.
Reasons for concern:
There are a couple of reasons why I still put them in this segment of the season preview. One, the most obvious one, is that Mitrovic could still leave. The window is still open, and it’s been widely reported that he wants to leave. Having scored 57 out of Fulham’s 163 goals under Marco Silva, losing him would obviously be a blow. There is another reason for concern that’s altogether more irrational. There is a history of teams in the PL suffering so-called “second season syndrome”. Teams that get promoted, do much better than expected in the first season and then struggle in the second. Whether they get sussed out by opponents, whether they lose a bit of hunger and fail to replicate the underdog spirit of being a newly promoted team, it’s hard to say. But it happens, it’s happened quite a few times. I have a suspicion, though I’ll admit it’s a quite irrational one, that it could happen to Fulham. Especially if Mitrovic leaves.
Final verdict:
Were excellent last season, should be absolutely fine this season. If they lose Mitrovic and maybe pick up some awkward injuries you could imagine things going wrong for them, but in all likelihood they’ll be fine.
