The US Election: The Odds (1 Year to Go)

With exactly one year remaining until the 2024 United States presidential election, the old presidential rivals remain firmly at the top of the odds list. Both Biden and Trump are currently offering election odds of approximately 2:1 for a win, clearly maintaining their status as favourites. More surprisingly is Gavin Newsom, now in third place, even though he is not an official candidate.  

Presidential elections in the USA never truly take a break. However, with precisely one year left, we are now beginning to discern the contenders. While the spotlight has primarily focused on the Republicans and who might challenge Trump for the party’s nomination, it’s a Democrat who stands as the best-positioned alternative to Biden and Trump.

Joe Biden is still the official Democratic candidate, but Gavin Newsom is actively positioning himself as future leader. Newsom, the Governor of California since 2019, is a devoted Catholic who regularly attends church. Betting on Newsom becoming the next President of the United States offers a 9.00x return, compared to Trump (2.50) and Biden (2.87). In fourth place on the odds list is the increasingly popular Republican candidate, Nikki Haley.

Donald Trump still enjoys a substantial lead among Republicans in opinion polls. Despite facing four ongoing charges, including attempts to overturn the election results, Trump’s popularity remains remarkably stable. Third on the Republican odds list is Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor initially appeared as a likely contender against Trump. However, his campaign has faced difficulties, struggling to gain momentum in opinion polls, and currently offering a 11x return compared to Trump’s odds at 1.22 to secure the Republican presidential nomination. If Trump’s problem is possible impeachment, President Biden’s age is his most vulnerable point, along with concerns about inflation and his son Hunter Biden’s business activities. Although both Biden and Trump maintain significant leads, a year remains, and many variables could influence the actions of other candidates. Currently, many are likely waiting for opportunities to critique their party’s candidates further.

Odds on US election 2024:

Donald Trump: 2.50
Joe Biden: 2.87
Gavin Newsom: 9.00
Nikki Haley: 15.00
Robert Kennedy Jr.: 21.00
Michelle Obama: 21.00
Ron DeSantis: 21.00
Kamala Harris: 34.00
Vivek Ramaswamy: 51.00
Elizabeth Warren: 67.00
Mike Pompeo: 67.00
Glenn Youngkin: 81.00
Dwayne Johnson: 81.00
Pete Buttigieg: 101.00
Gretchen Whitmer: 101.00
Jamie Dimon: 101.00
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 101.00
Amy Klobuchar: 101.00
Bernie Sanders: 101.00
Stacey Abrams: 101.00
Tucker Carlson: 101.00
Tim Scott: 126.00
Hillary Clinton: 126.00
Tulsi Gabbard: 151.00

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