Top Faves for the Literature Nobel Prize

On Thursday, October 5th, the Swedish Academy will announce this year’s Nobel Prize winner in literature. We have been offering odds on the literature prize for over a decade, and we currently rank Chinese avant-garde fiction writer Can Xue as the top odds favorite. He has been the subject of speculation in the past, but this marks the first time he’s taken the lead in the odds rankings. Notably, artist Paul Simon is a newcomer to the list this year, making it the second time a musician has been considered a potential winner.

Among the top contenders are well-known authors like Anne Carson and Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o, who have frequently been discussed as potential laureates. Some authors have seen significant shifts in their rankings, so there’s plenty of excitement ahead of this year’s event.

• “Historically, the Nobel laureate is often found among the top of our lists. For instance, last year’s winner, Annie Ernaux, was the third favorite, while 2020’s laureate, Louise Glück, was the top pick before the announcement. However, there have been surprises in the past, such as Bob Dylan (bottom of the list) and Abdulrazak Gurnah, who were not even included in the odds list”, says Robin Olenius, Head of PR at Betsson.

Notably, there is another musician on the list for the second time ever: Polar Prize winner Paul Simon. However, the American singer is considered a high-risk bet, along with the renowned horror and thriller author Stephen King, both offering odds of 50 times the bet.

As of now, Can Xue is the odds favorite at 5.00, with the second-placed favourite at 6.00. Third place on the odds list is occupied by one of Australia’s most notable authors, Gerald Murnane, alongside former top contender Anne Carson. North America dominates the list with seven candidates, followed by three from France.

Historically, France boasts the highest number of Nobel literature laureates (16), followed by the United States and Great Britain, each with 13 winners. The average age at the time of the announcement has been 65 years. Since the award’s inception in 1901, 102 men and 17 women have received the honor. Interestingly, 45 laureates have sported a beard or mustache, and one laureate, Jean-Paul Sartre, declined the award.

Here are some of this year’s potential winners and their odds:

Can Xue: 5.00
Gerald Murnane: 8.00
Anne Carson: 10.00
Ngugi wa Thiong’o: 12.00
Thomas Pynchon: 12.00
Michel Houllebecq: 15.00
Salman Rushdie: 15.00
Raul Zurita: 15.00
Cesar Aira: 15.00
Haruki Murakami: 15.00
Pierre Michon: 15.00
Maryse Condé: 18.00
Jamaica Kincaid: 18.00
Ko Un: 18.00
Joyce Carol Oates: 30.00
László Krasznahorkai: 30.00
Homero Aridjis: 30.00
Margaret Atwood: 40.00
Stephen King: 50.00
Paul Simon: 50.00